Cell Host & Microbe

Males incur greater risk of tuberculosis (TB) than females, but the contribution of sex-associated immune differences remains unclear. We addressed this using sex-stratified transcriptomic analyses across four independent studies spanning active pulmonary TB, subclinical TB and latent infection, in peripheral blood, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and by using the tuberculin skin test (TST) as a standardised in vivo antigenic challenge. In blood of active TB patients, expression of TNF- and type I interferon-regulated signatures, genome-wide gene expression, and performance of leading host-response biomarkers of TB were comparable between sexes. Similarly, blood transcriptomic biomarkers showed no meaningful sex-related differences for predicting asymptomatic or incident TB. In the TST of people with latent infection, bulk and single-cell RNA sequencing identified only limited differences, largely restricted to sex chromosome-linked transcripts, with no consistent evidence of dimorphism in immune-regulated pathways. Single-cell RNA sequencing of BAL samples identified reduced abundance of B cells in male TB patients, with gene expression differences again largely restricted to sex chromosome-linked transcripts. These findings suggest that canonical immune responses associated with TB are broadly similar between the sexes, and that increased TB risk among males more likely reflects differential exposure rather than intrinsic immunological susceptibility.

Background: Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is increasing globally, particularly among Hispanic/Latino (H/L) populations, yet the contribution of tumor-colonizing microbiota to age-associated colorectal cancer (CRC) biology remains poorly understood. Most microbiome studies have focused on fecal communities or non-Hispanic populations, leaving the intratumoral microbial landscape of H/L patients largely unexplored. Methods: We performed an exploratory characterization of tumor-colonizing microbiota using whole-exome sequencing (WES) data from four primary colorectal tumors obtained from H/L patients treated at City of Hope, including two EOCRC (<50 years) and two late-onset colorectal cancer (LOCRC; [&ge;]50 years) cases. Following removal of host-derived sequences, microbial taxonomic profiling was conducted at the family, genus, and species levels, and microbial metabolic pathways were inferred. Clinical and pathological data were integrated to evaluate age-associated differences in microbial composition and predicted function. Results: Family-, genus-, and species-level analyses consistently demonstrated greater microbial diversity in LOCRC than EOCRC. LOCRC contained more than twice the number of unique bacterial families, nearly three times as many unique genera, and more than twice as many unique bacterial species. A conserved core microbiota, including Fusobacteriaceae, Prevotellaceae, Fusobacterium, and Prevotella, was identified across both age groups, whereas LOCRC was enriched in CRC-associated taxa including Fusobacterium nucleatum, Bacteroides fragilis, Parvimonas micra, Porphyromonas asaccharolytica, and Dialister pneumosintes. Species-level analyses revealed only a single shared bacterial species between EOCRC and LOCRC, indicating progressive microbial divergence with increasing taxonomic resolution. In contrast, functional profiling identified 11 predicted microbial metabolic pathways, of which nine were shared between age groups, two were unique to EOCRC, and none were exclusive to LOCRC. Core metabolic pathways involved in energy metabolism, amino acid biosynthesis, phospholipid metabolism, and central carbon metabolism exhibited comparable abundance across both groups, demonstrating substantial functional conservation despite pronounced taxonomic differences. Conclusions: Tumor-colonizing microbiota differ markedly between EOCRC and LOCRC in H/L patients, with late-onset tumors exhibiting substantially greater microbial richness and taxonomic complexity. Despite these compositional differences, microbial metabolic functions remain largely conserved, supporting the concept of functional redundancy within the colorectal tumor microenvironment (TME). Although exploratory, this proof-of-concept study provides one of the first characterizations of intratumoral microbiota in H/L EOCRC and establishes a foundation for larger multi-omics investigations aimed at identifying microbiome-based biomarkers and therapeutic targets for precision oncology.

Somatic copy-number amplification is pervasive in cancer, and the genes it carries are candidate drug targets - but only those whose amplification is transmitted to accessible surface protein can be reached by an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC). We build an integrated map of copy-number-to-protein transmission across six tumour types and ask, for every amplified gene, whether its dosage reaches the surface. Copy number transmits to mRNA (median per-gene r = 0.21) but is attenuated at the protein level in 85% of genes, and the mRNA ranking is largely preserved to protein (rho = 0.70); the ranking is set principally at the chromatin/transcription step - among directly measured regulatory inputs, promoter DNA methylation and tumour chromatin accessibility each explain about an order of magnitude more of the transmission variance than gene structure, and do so complementarily. Critically, transmissibility is a stable, gene-intrinsic property: it is predictable from gene properties alone, with no proteomic input, at a leave-gene-out rank correlation of 0.52 (R2 = 0.29); it is not positional (holding out whole chromosome arms changes accuracy by 0.001); and it transfers across lineages (Kendall W = 0.97 across leave-one-lineage-out refits). This licenses a predictor that nominates surface targets in cancer types that lack a tissue-referenced proteome, combining direct protein measurement where it is available with prediction where it is not. Requiring co-elevation on a recurrent amplicon with measured transmissibility and an accessible extracellular ectodomain nominates 22 surface antigens on 18 distinct recurrent amplicons across four cancer types (renal, endometrial and both lung subtypes) - for example ITGB8+TSPAN13+TTYH3 on lung 7p, NCSTN+HSD17B7+MPZL1 on 1q (recurrent in several types), the transferrin receptor TFRC on squamous 3q, and FZD1 on clear-cell renal 7q; 21 of the 22 are non-driver passengers and 10 are confirmed on the experimental Cell Surface Protein Atlas. In single malignant cells, against a null that controls for per-cell sequencing depth, the co-detected constructs sit at a modest 1.05-1.45x above independence (p < 0.001, donor-block bootstrap intervals clear of 1.0), and at binding-relevant thresholds the normal-tissue co-expression collapses - so an avidity AND-gate that binds stably only where the antigens co-occur would spare normal cells that carry only one. Observed transmissibility itself transfers strongly between the two lung subtypes ({rho} = 0.88) and remains positive across distant lineages, consistent with the shared cell-of-origin regulation the map implies. Single-cell co-detection is demonstrated wherever a malignant single-cell atlas exists (both lung subtypes and glioblastoma - the latter entirely from prediction, using no GBM surface-abundance measurement); the remaining cohorts are nominated on the same genetic and topological evidence. The result is a pan-cancer, confidence-tiered catalogue of multi-antigen ADC co-target sets with a concrete plan to test them.

Background: Monoclonal antibodies have emerged as a prophylactic strategy to prevent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunocompromised individuals. However, the evolutionary and clinical implications of breakthrough infections under this regime remain unclear. Methods: A male in their 80s with a haematological/oncological diagnosis received a 2000 mg intravenous infusion of sotrovimab in March 2023 and was diagnosed with COVID-19 by RT-qPCR from a nasopharyngeal swab in August 2023. Weekly samples (n=24) were collected through February 2024 (171 days). All samples underwent whole-genome sequencing, with select mutations subjected to functional assessment. Findings: Sequencing identified the GE.1 lineage at all timepoints. An intra-host recombination event in ORF1ab (positions 8942-12458) was detected prior to 23 weeks post-detection, followed by a 14-fold increase in viral load (7.42e+06 to 1.00e+08 RNA copies/mL) and a marked shift in the viral population. E340D, a sotrovimab resistance mutation, was detected at low abundance (46%) within the first week post-infection, fluctuated over time, and was nearly fixed by week 15 (107 days) post-detection. We assessed five spike mutations - V36M, S98F, and V213G in the N-terminal domain, Y505P in the receptor-binding domain, and P681Q near the S1/S2 cleavage site - and additionally evaluated the impact of E340D. V36M conferred the highest infectivity across all cell lines, with the most significant effect in low-TMPRSS2 cells. While all mutations showed enhanced infectivity with the addition of E340D, the effect was most pronounced in mutations with lower baseline infectivity. The addition of E340D significantly decreased relative neutralizing titres for V36M, S98F, and V213G, enabling escape from neutralizing antibodies in XBB-responsive individuals, illustrating an enhanced phenotypic advantage. Patient neutralizing activity was absent pre-sotrovimab, and sotrovimab-induced neutralization was further compromised by selection of E340D. Interpretation: Sotrovimab pre-exposure prophylaxis in an immunocompromised patient did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, and selected for resistant mutation E340D, with unexpected fitness consequences across non-receptor binding domain spike regions.

Background The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak highlighted the critical need for robust genomic surveillance capabilities to track mpox virus (MPXV) evolution and transmission dynamics. Methods Building upon our established SARS-CoV-2 sequencing infrastructure, we implemented a Molecular Loop probe-based long-read sequencing approach using Pacific Biosciences Sequel II technology for comprehensive MPXV genomic surveillance across the United States (US). From August 2024 to June 2025, we generated 326 high-quality whole genome sequences from residual mpox-positive clinical specimens collected by Labcorp across all 10 US Department of Health and Human Services regions. Results Our analysis identified two samples containing clade Ib MPXV in January and June 2025 and captured shifting trends in clade IIb diversity, with 13 distinct lineages observed. We also identified multiple instances of large (~1.6-17.6kb) deletions proximal to the inverted terminal repeats in clade IIb genomes. APOBEC3 mutation analysis indicated substantial evidence of human-to-human transmission among both clades. Further, we observed significantly higher APOBEC3-associated SNPs per kilobase (P<0.001) in clade IIb genomic variable regions relative to their central conserved region. Our assay exhibited strong reproducibility across biological replicates from individual patients and accuracy was confirmed via parallel sequencing of select specimens by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) using metagenomic sequencing. We also demonstrated via custom simulation that our assay discriminates all known MPXV clades and lineages, including those we have not observed in the US. Conclusions Our integrated nationwide surveillance system facilitates real-time genomic tracking of outbreak evolution, with demonstrated capacity across SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV, positioning this platform for rapid deployment during future pathogen emergence.

The X-linked G-protein coupled receptor GPR174 is highly expressed in T and B lymphocytes and has immunoregulatory roles in mice, but its function in humans is unknown. We describe a cohort of six individuals who have function-disrupting variants in GPR174 and a clinical phenotype of lymphadenopathy and autoimmunity. Histological analysis of two patient lymph nodes revealed necrotizing lymphadenitis and lymphoproliferation resembling Kikuchi-Fujimoto disease. In-depth analysis of three patients and related carriers revealed overaccumulation of CD8 terminally differentiated effector memory cells re-expressing CD45RA (TEMRA). Patient cells and GPR174-deficient CD8 T cells generated from controls showed less repression of proliferation by the GPR174 ligand lysophosphatidylserine (lysoPS) and an effector-biased gene expression program. GPR174-deficient CD4 T cells were resistant to lysoPS-mediated suppression of IL2 production. In mice, chronic viral infection led to over-accumulation of GPR174-deficient effector CD8 T cells. We describe an inborn error of immunity associated with dysregulated lymphocyte responses that we propose predisposes to exaggerated lymphoproliferation and autoimmunity following viral infection.

Background Pneumococcal disease is a leading cause of paediatric pneumonia and meningitis. Pneumococcal colonisation is the fundamental step to pneumococcal disease causation. We aimed to identify genetic loci associated with pneumococcal colonisation amongst children. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study on 2111 Nepalese children, comprising 1346 cases carrying pneumococcus and 765 controls. We tested 8.1 million imputed variants using logistic regression and ten principal components as covariates. Fine mapping and functional evidence were used to identify suspected causal variants and related genes of interest. Findings A cluster of 22 variants of genome-wide significance (p<5x10-8) were identified on chromosome 12q21.31, eight of which were within PPFIA2. Fine mapping of this region identified 5 variants within 0.1 Mb of the 5-prime region of PPFIA2 all of which are significant eQTLs for PPFIA2. We further describe three loci (10q23.31, 12q23.1, and 20p11.21) which had variants with highly suggestive associations (p<5x10-7)with pneumococcal carriage. Interpretation Our study demonstrate human susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage to be polygenic with genetic variations which regulate PPFIA2 expression playing a key role in the ability for pneumococcus to colonise children. Targeting these genetic factors and the associated pathways are a means for preventing pneumococcal disease. Funding This study was supported by funding from Gavi - the vaccine alliance, the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 668303 (PERFORM), and a Robert Austrian Research Award.

Background Early-life respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is associated with childhood recurrent wheeze or asthma (RW/A), but causality and shared genetic liability remain unclear. Methods We combined Finnish nationwide registries and Nordic genetic cohorts. First, in 965 312 Finnish children born between 1998 and 2014, we defined severe RSV as RSV hospitalisation before age 1 year, and recurrent wheezing or asthma (RW/A) as inhaled medication reimbursement between ages 1 and 7 years, and compared medication and eosinophil trajectories by RSV history. Second, we assessed familial confounding in 527 776 full siblings and 15 667 RW/A-discordant pairs. Third, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of RSV susceptibility with meta-analysis across six Nordic cohorts (3 107 cases, 92 031 controls) and two-sample Mendelian randomisation (2SMR) using 155 asthma-associated variants. Findings RSV-associated RW/A showed higher inhaled medication use at ages 1-2 years but lower use after age 4, and lower mean blood eosinophils (0.34 vs 0.39*10e9/L; p=0.003) than RW/A without RSV hospitalisation. In RW/A-discordant sibling pairs, RSV hospitalisation was associated with RW/A (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.4-3.2), while unaffected siblings also had elevated RW/A prevalence. GWAS identified an RSV association at APBB1IP (rs787036; beta=0.209; p=8.80*10e-9). 2SMR provided no evidence that asthma genetic liability influenced RSV susceptibility. Interpretation The RSV-asthma association is unlikely to be explained by shared genetic or environmental factors, and RSV-associated RW/A shows a distinct trajectory. These findings help prioritise long-term outcomes for RSV prevention trials and monitoring. Funding: Paivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation, Foundation for Pediatric Research, Sigrid Juselius Foundation, Orion Research Foundation, the Research Council of Norway.

Background. Post acute sequelae of COVID 19 (PASC) is clinically heterogeneous and mechanistically unresolved, and single-analyte studies have struggled to explain it. Methods. We profiled matched plasma proteomics, metabolomics and whole-blood transcriptomics at acute infection and convalescence (mean 86 days later) in a Belgian cohort, using linear mixed models, multiomic gene-set enrichment, and a degree-matched differential-correlation approach to quantify how each node's interactions were rewired between patients who developed PASC and those who recovered; seven axis proteins were additionally quantified by multiplex immunoassay as orthogonal validation. Findings. Single omic testing yielded few FDR significant features, yet multi-omic enrichment showed sustained complement cascade involvement from acute illness to follow-up in PASC. Correlation networks re-organised topologically toward C3 and lost the immunoglobulin V gene coexpression seen in recovery. The most rewired nodes, heparin cofactor II (SERPIND1), alpha 1 antitrypsin (SERPINA1), complement factor H related 5 (CFHR5), prothrombin/thrombin (F2) and immunoglobulin V gene transcripts (notably IGLV3 21), changed in their co-expression structure rather than in abundance. In multiplex validation, acute CRP was elevated in patients who developed PASC (FDR = 0.012), whereas the directly measured abundances of the network-nominated proteins were unchanged. Interpretation. These trajectory aware, cross omic networks nominate a thrombo inflammatory axis in which complement and coagulation regulation remain dysregulated in PASC at the level of wiring rather than abundance, providing a systems framework for validation and for exploring interventions at the complement coagulation platelet interface.

CRISPR-Cas12a nucleases are classically activated through CRISPR RNA (crRNA) guided and PAM-dependent target recognition, which together establish a canonical heteroduplex associated with nuclease activation. Here we identify a crRNA- and PAM-independent activation pathway for Cas12a that reveals previously unrecognized conformational plasticity within its nucleic acid recognition interface. We show that short RNAs can directly occupy the canonical crRNA-binding channel and trigger a catalytically competent trans cleavage state in the absence of PAM recognition or canonical R-loop formation. Biochemical assays indicate that short RNAs bind the crRNA-binding channel and are competitively displaced by cognate crRNA, consistent with binding at a conserved nucleic acid-binding interface. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) further reveals that Cas12a maintains its global catalytic architecture while exhibiting loss of canonical PAM-dependent stabilization and increased flexibility of the RuvC lid, alongside accommodation of a noncanonical RNA-DNA hybrid with inverted polarity relative to the crRNA-target duplex. This crRNA-independent activation pathway enables programmable, amplification-free detection of DNA and RNA targets independent of canonical guide-mediated recognition. Together, these findings define an alternative activation geometry for Cas12a and expand models of Class 2 CRISPR-Cas effector activation beyond crRNA- and PAM-directed recognition.

We previously reported inherited RORgammaT deficiency in seven patients from three ancestries (Chilean, Palestinian, Saudi Arabian) with mycobacterial disease and chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis (CMC). We report here five additional patients from different ancestries (Afghan, Indian, Iranian, Japanese, Sri Lankan), each homozygous for a new loss-of-function RORC variant. All but one patient, the exception receiving early prophylaxis, developed mycobacterial disease due to a near-complete depletion of innate-like adaptive T cells, including MAIT and iNKT cells, low counts of adaptive TH1* and CD8+ T cells, and impaired Mycobacterium-induced IFN-gamma production by the remaining cells of these subsets, NK cells, conventional CD4+ T, Vdelta1, and Vdelta2 gamma-delta T cells. Most patients also displayed CMC due to their low counts of TH17 and TH1* cells. One patient died from disseminated Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine infection, but, unexpectedly, all the other patients are still alive and clinically stable. RORgammaT is essential for protective immunity against mycobacteria and Candida in humans.

Background: Children born prematurely (before 37 weeks) or admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) are at increased risk of adverse long-term physical health outcomes. It is also recognised that there is an association with later academic performance and special educational needs, however it is not clear whether these broad risk factors could be used as stand-alone heuristics to identify children who may benefit from additional support in educational settings. We aimed to examine the associations between neonatal unit (NNU) admission and educational attainment in mid-childhood. Methods and Findings: Pregnancy data from a prospective birth cohort (Pregnancy Outcome Prediction Study, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2008-2012) were linked to national educational outcomes (Department for Education, United Kingdom). Multivariable regression models adjusted for maternal, child, and socioeconomic factors were used to evaluate associations between (i) all NNU admissions, (ii) at term NNU admissions >48 hours, (iii) preterm birth without ongoing physical health needs, and educational outcomes at ages 5-11 years. Children who required any NNU care were more likely not to meet expected educational standards across multiple ages and domains in early and mid-childhood: age 5 early year foundation (aOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.19-2.27, p=0.003), phonics at age 6 (aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.72-3.57, p<0.001), and at age 7 (here assessments were divided into multiple domains): reading (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.38, p=0.004), writing (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.25-2.38, p<0.001), mathematics (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.22, p=0.020), and science (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.22-2.78, p=0.003). Similar patterns were observed among both at term-born infants who stayed >48hrs in NNU (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.51-3.36, p<0.001) and in children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 3.07, 95% CI 1.96-4.81, p<0.001). These associations were robust to adjustment for demographic, perinatal, and socio-economic factors. By age 11, differences in academic attainment were attenuated and no longer clearly distinguishable across all exposure groups. However, there was an increased likelihood of special educational needs (SEN) at age 11 associated with any NNU admission (aOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.15-2.73, p=0.009), at term NNU admission for >48hrs (aOR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19-3.00, p=0.007), and children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.25, p=0.049). Predictive performance of any NNU admission for SEN at age 11 was moderate (AUC 0.70, 95% CI: 1.14-2.65, p=0.010), with balanced sensitivity and specificity and high negative predictive value. Conclusions: NNU admission, for both term and preterm infants, is associated with poorer educational outcomes and an increased likelihood of special educational needs in mid-childhood.

Estimating dengue force of infection (FOI) is essential for understanding transmission dynamics and targeting intervention programmes, yet surveillance data in endemic settings required for estimations are often incomplete, with varying formats. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical catalytic model that jointly fits age-stratified case data, aggregate case data, and seroprevalence surveys within a single framework, incorporating external covariates to improve parameter identifiability. Synthetic validation showed that covariates alone recovered accurate FOI point estimates even when most districts contributed only aggregate data, but did so with poorly calibrated uncertainty; anchoring the model with a single seroprevalence survey was necessary to bring credible interval coverage close to nominal. Applied to 128 districts across Java and Bali, Indonesia (2016-2024), the model revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in FOI and reporting rates. Many districts in Java exceeded the WHO-suggested seroprevalence threshold for vaccine introduction, yet were classified as low-priority when using reported incidence as prioritisation criterion, particularly in areas with weak surveillance. Model-based seroprevalence estimation, integrating multiple data sources, offers a more consistent basis for identifying high-priority districts for vaccine introduction, and is less susceptible to surveillance bias than reported incidence.

Purpose: Nonresponse to routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) threatens the representativeness of aggregated data. We characterized patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors associated with PROMIS Global-10 nonresponse in routine radiation oncology care. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, all adults seen at five Mass General Brigham radiation oncology clinics over one year were included. The primary outcome was patient-level nonresponse, defined as never completing the portal-administered Global-10 versus completing it at least once. Using iterative mixed-effects logistic regression, we modeled patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors. Results: Among 12,214 patients, 71 providers, and five clinics, patient- and appointment-level response rates were 35.4% and 10.9%, with patient-level response ranging nearly fivefold across clinics (12.8% to 66.2%). In Model 1, male sex, lower education, not working, and recent surgery had higher odds of nonresponse, and longer time since diagnosis lower odds. After provider- and clinic-level factors were added, patient sex, education, and employment became nonsignificant, whereas recent surgery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.97) and longer time since diagnosis (aOR 0.46 for >12 months) persisted. A provider's historical collection rate was protective but attenuated at the clinic level. There, a later program launch (aOR 0.29) and higher historical collection rate (aOR 0.79) correlated with lower nonresponse, whereas academic versus community setting did not. Conclusions: Nonresponse to routinely collected PROMs is a multilevel phenomenon driven substantially by clinic-level implementation factors, not patient characteristics alone. Because response rate is only a proxy for representativeness, PROMs programs and PRO-based performance measures should prioritize representative collection over volume.

Background Post-infection conditions (PICs), such as Long Covid, are associated with heterogeneous, fluctuating symptoms that profoundly affect daily functioning. Despite moderate-certainty evidence from the NIHR-funded LISTEN trial (COV-LT2-0009) that personalised self management support improves outcomes and may reduce societal and economic impacts of Long Covid, many people living with PICs still receive condition-specific services, generic advice, or stand-alone digital tools that do not address their complex needs. Aim To map care approaches in general practice and synthesise UK evidence for PIC management. Design and setting Scoping review and online survey. Method A two-phase study was conducted: (1) a scoping review of UK evidence on PIC management in general practice; and (2) a supplementary online survey of practitioners working in UK general practice to provide contextual insights. Results The scoping review identified 32 studies focused on Long Covid. One study included a comparator group (ME/CFS). Study populations were predominantly white ethnicity and female. Evidence for non-Covid PICs in UK general practice was largely absent. The supplementary survey (n=46) provided preliminary practice-level insights. Healthcare practitioners reported varied PIC presentations, diagnostic uncertainty, limited referral pathways, inequitable access, and low confidence in managing PICs. Conclusion Evidence informing PIC management in UK general practice remains predominantly Long Covid-focused and may not reflect the range of PICs encountered in practice. While survey findings are preliminary and require confirmation in larger samples, they highlight uncertainty around PIC management. Further research is needed to evaluate whether existing Long Covid pathways should be expanded or complemented by broader PIC models. Keywords general practice; Long Covid; self-management; post-viral syndromes

Stochastic epidemic models are a cornerstone of infectious disease epidemiology and are often used to study intervention scenarios. However, large run-to-run variability can make intervention effects difficult to estimate precisely. We revisit the epidemic Sellke construction, which assigns each individual an infection threshold for the cumulative infection hazard such that, conditional on the thresholds, the epidemic trajectory becomes deterministic. This enables coupling of simulations with and without an intervention, yielding low-variance effect estimates even when outcomes such as final size or peak incidence vary widely between runs. We develop an exact, event-driven implementation that maintains infection and recovery events in priority queues. Cumulative infection-hazard updates require O(log N) time per event, yielding overall complexity O(Elog N) for E events in a population of size N. The implementation achieves computational performance comparable to the classical Gillespie algorithm while naturally accommodating non-Markovian infectious periods and complex infectiousness profiles. We illustrate the approach using distance-dependent spread of avian influenza between poultry farms in the Netherlands and a multilayer population with households, schools, and workplaces. In both examples, coupling enables efficient within-run comparisons of intervention scenarios across stochastic realisations.

Background: Opioid use disorder (OUD) is heritable, yet most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have focused on European populations, leaving the genetic architecture of OUD in non-European populations underexplored. Methods: We conducted GWAS of OUD across three ancestries using electronic health records and genomic data from 52,357 All of Us Research Program participants (8,912 cases; 43,445 matched opioid-exposed controls; 48.5% female). Participants were stratified into European (EUR), African (AFR), and Admixed American (AMR) ancestry groups for logistic regression GWAS, with independent replication in the Million Veteran Program. We then applied the deep-learning model AlphaGenome to predict the tissue-specific transcriptomic and splicing consequences of top risk variants across 13 reward-pathway brain regions. Results: We identified and replicated a novel DDX6 risk locus, alongside established OPRM1 and FURIN signals. AlphaGenome predicted the DDX6 regulatory allele downregulates the stress-resistance gene FOXR1 in the nucleus accumbens, while the protective OPRM1 variant (rs1799971) upregulates OPRM1 expression across reward networks. Other signals of interest included IL6R and SHISA9 (EUR); GHR (AFR); and ASTN2 (AMR). Conclusions: This study identifies DDX6 as a novel OUD risk locus, replicates associations with OPRM1 and FURIN, and highlights biologically plausible ancestry-specific signals in AFR and AMR populations. We also replicated top variants in an independent population. Finally, integrating GWAS with deep-learning annotations provides specific, localized biological hypotheses to guide future experimental validation and targeted therapeutics.

Objective: There is a bidirectional relationship between emotional distress and pain. However, this relationship is understudied in people with HIV in low-resource settings. This study sought to describe the temporal relationship between emotional distress and pain in people with HIV. Design: Longitudinal observational study. Methods: Participants with virally suppressed HIV, reporting either no pain or persistent pain at baseline, provided weekly remote ratings of distress, worst pain, and average pain using 0-10 visual analogue scales. Within-individual fluctuations in distress and pain were visualised over time. Group-level correlations were determined using Spearman's correlation tests. Cumulative link mixed models assessed whether distress and pain each predicted the other in the following week. Results: 72 participants provided responses over 49 weeks. The participants had a median (IQR) age of 43 (37-51) years, 63% (n=45) were unemployed and most were females (n=51;71%). Distress and pain fluctuated concurrently within individuals: distress was positively correlated with worst pain ({rho}=0.66, 95% CI= 0.60-0.72, p<0.001) and average pain ({rho}=0.70, 95% CI=0.64-0.75, p<0.001) intensity within the same week. Worst pain (OR=1.42, 95% CI=1.17-1.71, p<0.001) and average pain (OR=1.43, 95% CI=1.20-1.71, p<0.001) intensity both predicted distress in the next week. Distress predicted worst pain intensity (OR=1.25, 95% CI=1.07-1.46, p=0.023) but not average pain intensity (OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.01-1.40, p=0.152) in the next week. Conclusions: The temporal relationship between distress and worst pain intensity was bidirectional, whereas distress did not temporally predict average pain intensity. Both pain and emotional distress should receive attention from HIV research and clinical care in low-resource settings.

Lithium has been the gold standard for the treatment and prevention of relapse in bipolar disorder for over 60 years. Guidance from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence states explicitly to 'offer lithium as a first-line, long-term pharmacological treatment for bipolar disorder'. Yet, in the last two decades its use has been in decline with clinicians favouring anticonvulsants or antipsychotics when treating this condition. In this study, we have used three openly available datasets containing prescribing data from primary and secondary care to explore trends in the use of lithium in England, showing both regional and temporal variance between 2015-2024. We have shown that lithium use declined in primary care by 20.9% in the last ten years (2015-2024) and 10.9% overall in the last five years (2019 to 2025). We have also shown how there is some regional variation in the source of lithium for patients, although the vast majority is prescribed in primary care. Further research into clinical behaviour is needed to understand what is driving the decrease in lithium usage, and what barriers and enablers may influence its use across the country.

Background. Early diagnosis and intervention are crucial in multiple sclerosis (MS), yet diagnostic delays are common. Large language models (LLMs) such as generative pre-trained transformers (GPTs) may help streamline diagnostic workflows by extracting MS diagnostic signals from clinical notes. Objective. To derive MS diagnosis status from the first neurology note using a computable algorithm based on the 2017 McDonald criteria and applying GPT-4 for node-level reasoning within a structured decision framework. Methods. We analyzed first neurology notes from 125 randomly selected patients (including those with MS, related disorders, and controls) enrolled in a clinic cohort between 2017 and 2023. We included the clinical history and diagnostic testing sections but redacted the assessment and plan. We converted the 2017 McDonald criteria into a decision tree and provided expert-curated clinical knowledge to guide GPT-4 reasoning at each decision node. GPT-4 generated binary decisions at each node to traverse the tree and classified MS diagnoses at terminal nodes. We evaluated performance against neurologist-assessed diagnoses and characterized hallucinations (non-factual, incongruent, irrelevant, over-reliant, and logical reasoning errors). Results. In this study cohort (mean age 40{+/-}13 years; 81% women) representative of the clinic population, GPT-4 performed well in predicting MS diagnosis (84% accuracy, 79% precision, 74% recall, 91% specificity) using first neurology notes. Hallucinations occurred in 32 cases (26%), most commonly incoherence (75%) and overreliance (47%). Conclusion. A structured, LLM-guided decision framework can flag MS diagnoses from early clinical documentation. Large-scale studies are needed to mitigate hallucinations, validate this approach, and test implementation in clinical settings.